Lithuanian ETA — Baltic mid-market transaction multiple benchmark

Scope. 27 public transactions dated Dec 2019–Mar 2026: 21 Baltic targets and six clearly labelled CEE comparables. EV/EBITDA is stated only when EV and aligned EBITDA are public or the buyer/seller states it; otherwise “not derivable” identifies why. No outreach, paid data, broker input or private estimates were used.

Key. Each record gives date; target country; sector; buyer/type; financials; value; EV/EBITDA (or reason); form; confidence; source.

Baltic targets

  1. Krekenavos Agrofirma + Mėsa LT, LT — 23 Dec 2019/9 Apr 2020; meat/food; BaltCap Fund III (financial); revenue €122m/€0.7m, EBITDA undisclosed; value undisclosed; not derivable: no EV/EBITDA; buy-and-build; high. Source
  2. NNL LT, LT — May 2020; cold-chain logistics; management SPV/Orion PE (sponsor-backed MBO); revenue >€20m, EBITDA/value undisclosed; not derivable; not stated; high. Oaklins Sorainen
  3. Pigu, LT — 2021; e-commerce; MidEuropa (PE); financials undisclosed, €37m seller proceeds but no EV; not derivable; platform; medium-high. Source
  4. Ecoservice, LT — 2021; waste services; Eco Baltia/INVL-backed (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; regional add-on; high. Source
  5. Qvalitas + Unimed, EE — 8 Mar 2021; outpatient health; Mehiläinen (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; regional expansion; high. Source
  6. Valmiera Glass Group, LV — Feb 2021; glass fibre; Duke I (financial); 2020 revenue €95.8m/EBITDA €13.684m, consideration undisclosed; not derivable: no EV; not stated; medium. Source
  7. Telia Latvia, LV — 31 May 2022; B2B telecom; Tet (strategic); seller-stated FY2021 basis; €10.75m cash-free/debt-free EV; 10.0×; capability add-on; high. Source
  8. Nordigen, LV — 1 Jul 2022; open-banking infrastructure; GoCardless (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; capability add-on; high. Source
  9. EveryPay, EE — 4 Mar 2022; payments; LHV (listed strategic); 2021 revenue €1.2m, EBITDA undisclosed; €8m equity consideration; not derivable: no net debt/cash or EBITDA; add-on; high. Source
  10. NanoAvionics, LT — 8 Sep 2022; satellites; Kongsberg (strategic); 2021 revenue US$12.6m, EBITDA undisclosed; €65m EV; not derivable; capability addition; high. Source
  11. TeleSoftas, LT — 27 Sep 2022; software; Helmes (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; regional capability add-on; high. Source
  12. Stebulė, LT — 28 Oct 2022; landscaping; Green Landscaping (strategic); revenue c.€13m, EBITDA/value undisclosed; not derivable; expansion add-on; high. Source
  13. HansaMatrix, LV — 17 Feb 2023; electronics manufacturing; BaltCap/Emsco (PE); financials undisclosed; €8.50/share, no EV; not derivable; not stated; high. Source
  14. Hansab, EE — 11 May 2023; automation/security; BaltCap (PE); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; platform; high. Source
  15. GASO, LV — 14 Apr/17 Jul 2023; gas distribution; Eesti Gaas/Infortar (strategic); 2022 revenue €51.2m/EBITDA €23.4m; €120m equity value; not derivable: equity value is not EV; not stated; high. Sale Report
  16. 888 Latvia business, LV — May/Jun 2023; gaming; Paf (strategic); 2022 revenue £9.1m/EBITDA £2.5m; €24m plus €4.25m earn-out; 8.36× initial, up to 9.84×; carve-out add-on; high. Source
  17. Eko Osta, LV — 2024; hazardous waste; Eco Baltia/INVL-backed (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; waste-platform add-on; high. Source
  18. Infare, LT — 2024; aviation data software; OAG (strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; capability addition; high. Source
  19. InMedica, LT — 6 Mar 2025; outpatient health; Mehiläinen (strategic); 2024 revenue >€150m, EBITDA/value undisclosed; not derivable; platform expansion; high. Source
  20. Selteka, LT — 2025; electronics manufacturing; Inission (listed strategic); financials/value undisclosed; not derivable; Baltic expansion; medium-high. Source
  21. TOPsport, LT — 19 Mar 2026 agreement for 70%; betting/gaming; Fortuna/Penta (strategic); reported 2025 EBITDA €65m, scope definition not reconciled; value undisclosed; not derivable: consideration undisclosed; platform expansion; high. Source

CEE comparables — calibration only

  1. Telekom Romania Communications, RO — 9 Nov 2020; fixed telecom; Orange (strategic); 2019 revenue €622m, EBITDA undisclosed; €497m EV; not derivable; convergence acquisition; high. Source
  2. Grupa Inelo, PL — 25 Oct 2022/15 Mar 2023; fleet software; Eurowag (strategic); 2021 revenue €26.8m/adjusted EBITDA €10.4m; EV up to €306m; up to 29.4×, qualified by contingent consideration/definition mismatch; add-on; medium comparability. Source
  3. STS Holding, PL — Jun/Aug 2023; gaming; Entain CEE (strategic); FY2022 EBITDA PLN273m; c.£750m headline with reinvestment mechanics; buyer-stated 13.8× historic, 11× forward, below 10× post-synergy; platform addition; medium-high. Source
  4. Profi Rom Food, RO — 30 Oct 2023; grocery; Ahold Delhaize (strategic); LTM sales €2.5bn; €1.3bn EV (€1.8bn lease adjusted); c.7.0× fully-synergised EBITDA; scale combination; high. Source
  5. Sellier & Bellot, CZ — 16 May 2024; ammunition; Colt CZ (strategic); financials undisclosed; US$703m excluding target net debt; not derivable; capability complement; high. Source
  6. UPC Broadband Slovakia, SK — 18 Dec 2025 binding agreement; broadband; O2 Slovakia/e& PPF (strategic); revenue c.€47m/EBITDA c.€14.1m; €95m cash-free/debt-free; c.6.7×; fixed-mobile add-on; medium-high. Source

Multiple read-through

Six usable observations: Telia Latvia 10.0×; 888 Latvia 8.36× initial (9.84× with earn-out); Inelo up to 29.4×; STS buyer-stated 13.8× historic; Profi c.7.0×; UPC c.6.7×. Simple median: 8.36×. Range: 6.7–29.4×. Excluding Inelo, the range is 6.7–13.8× and median remains 8.36×.

By value band. Under €25m: Telia/888, 8.36–10.0× (median 9.18× initial basis). €25–100m: UPC, c.6.7×; NanoAvionics has €65m EV but no EBITDA. Above €100m: Inelo, STS and Profi span c.7.0–29.4×, each with strategic/contingent/synergy qualifications. No clean disclosed sub-€5m-EBITDA Baltic SME multiple exists.

By sector. Telecom: 6.7–10.0×. Gaming: 8.36× initial 888 consideration and 13.8× buyer-stated STS historic figure. Software: only Inelo’s qualified 29.4×. Grocery: only Profi’s synergy-aware c.7.0×. Healthcare, waste, logistics and Baltic industrial services have no clean public EV/EBITDA in this set.

Entry-to-exit verdict

The evidence does not prove that Baltic add-ons consistently trade at 2–4× and later exit at 4–6×. No matched entry/platform-exit pair has both multiples disclosed. It does show active buyer appetite and platform logic. The clean Baltic observations are specialised telecom and gaming assets, not a general pricing rule. Treat 2–4× entry and 4–6× exit as an underwriting hypothesis; price normalised EBITDA, concentration, asset intensity, working capital, buyer competition, recurring revenue, regional reach and governance case by case.

Integrity statement. All figures above come from public sources. No fund, adviser, banker, broker, buyer, seller or company was contacted.